Chance calculators, consultants, AI tools and counseling: what each measures, what each costs, and how to classify a college for your own profile. Facts from primary sources, reviewed and dated.
Six calculators scored on the same criteria: data source, how many of the four admissions questions they model, output, coverage and cost.
What accuracy means for a probability, what every tool can and cannot see, and why 30% means different things at different colleges.
What each measures you against, what you get back, essay review, price and business model.
About $140 an hour for many consultants versus free to $60 for a read. What each does, with a decision table by situation.
School counselors average 372 students each. What purpose-built tools do well, where chatbots fail, and what a counselor still does that software cannot.
Scatterplots, similar-profile models and per-college fit models: what each measures your profile against, and the four questions a college asks.
Research, list building, chancing, deadlines, essays and paying for college, with the right tool for each.
A four-step method using middle-50% ranges, round-level admit rates and program-level review, with worked examples from Duke, Michigan, UVA and Williams.